I really like ABC's The Note
. It's a good comprehensive collection of stuff and on Thursdays they have predictions listed with probabilities. Three examples:
Percent chance that if John Kerry wins, Democratic strategists who aren't "Clinton people" will find Democratic strategists who ARE "Clinton people" to be totally insufferable: 98%
Percent chance that Ken Mehlman will talk too loudly in a TV appearance or on a conference call in the next two weeks: 84%
Percent chance that the Gang of 500 will declare the presidential race over if John Kerry "loses" the first debate: 70%
Ha, it's not scientific but still...None of the predictions I know anything about stray too far from what I would consider reasonable odds. And these are erudite professionals in a position to know. Entertaining, but uncanny too. Like a well-written horoscope.
posted by M@ at 10:05 PM